Upstart Raiders enter challenging stretch with the AFC playoff hunt in view

May 2024 · 5 minute read

HENDERSON, Nev. — Ten games into the season, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in the same place they were two years ago. In 2021, they were 5-5 with interim coach Rich Bisaccia leading the way and squarely in the playoff hunt. In 2023, they’re 5-5 with interim coach Antonio Pierce leading the way and squarely in the playoff hunt.

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That 2021 team finished 10-7 and made an improbable postseason appearance. This year’s team fully believes it’s capable of doing the same.

“Our will to win is very strong,” linebacker Robert Spillane said after his team’s victory over the New York Jets on Sunday. “We’re just going to keep pushing forward.”

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On their way to finishing 2021 with a 5-2 run, the Raiders navigated a formidable lineup of opponents, as their seven final foes finished with a collective winning percentage of .538. But Las Vegas’ final seven games this season could end up being even tougher. The Raiders’ six remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .571.

Raiders' remaining 2023 schedule

The Raiders hold the No. 11 seed in the AFC. Only the top seven make the playoffs, so they have ground to make up to get into the thick of the race. To do so, they’re going to have to beat some teams they probably shouldn’t. The upcoming five-game stretch is a proving ground that will tell the world how good they truly are.

It starts with the Dolphins in Miami on Sunday. With coach Mike McDaniel dialing up plays for Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and an explosive run game, the Dolphins feature the NFL’s best offense and lead the league in both yards and points per game.

The Raiders defense has been improved, but slowing down Miami’s historic attack will be its biggest challenge of the year. And for a Las Vegas offense that’s still only averaging 16.3 points per game (27th in the league), it’s fair to question whether it has enough firepower to keep up.

Next up will be Kansas City. The No. 1 seed in the AFC is a familiar spot for the Chiefs, but they’ve gone about it differently this season. Rather than being led by Patrick Mahomes and the offense, it’s the defense that has been their dominant unit. It’s allowing just 15.9 points per game (second) and is fourth in total defense.

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Also, while the Chiefs offense hasn’t been quite as good as we’re accustomed to, it’s still pretty good, averaging 22.3 points (T-10th) and 5.7 yards per play (fifth). The Chiefs are arguably the most complete team in the league, and the Raiders still have to play them twice.

Following their first matchup with the Chiefs, the Raiders will have their bye in Week 13 before hosting the Vikings the following Sunday. Minnesota has lost quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season due to a torn Achilles, but its offense has remained dangerous, even with journeyman quarterback Joshua Dobbs at the helm and superstar receiver Justin Jefferson sidelined with a hamstring injury. With Jefferson expected to be healthy by then, this will be another big test for the Raiders defense.

The Vikings defense is flawed, but defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ hyperaggressive approach has the unit functioning at a respectable level. It’ll surely send plenty of heat at Raiders quarterback Aidan O’Connell. The Raiders offensive line, which has been poor in pass protection of late, will have to do a much better job of keeping the rookie upright.

The easiest game for the Raiders in this stretch is against the Los Angeles Chargers, who are once again struggling, largely due to their terrible defense. To be fair, it was that same defense that sacked O’Connell seven times, shut down running back Josh Jacobs and held the Raiders to 17 points in Week 4, but it’s one that has looked beatable in the weeks since.

On the flip side, the Chargers offense has been thriving. With Justin Herbert balling out, the offense is averaging 31.7 points per game over the last three weeks. The Raiders may need to win in a shootout.

To end the five-game challenge, the Raiders travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs again on Christmas Day. As the franchise is aware, coming out of Arrowhead Stadium with a win is a tall task.

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For the Raiders to make a playoff push, they’ll likely need to go at least 3-2 in their next five games. To do that, they’ll have to earn an upset win in at least one of their three games against the Dolphins and Chiefs. They’re likely to be significant underdogs in all three.

Going 3-2 would put the Raiders at 8-7 heading into their final two games of the season — against the Colts in Indianapolis and at home against the Denver Broncos. In the tightly contested AFC, getting to 10 wins feels like the minimum requirement to make the playoffs. Perhaps there’s room for a nine-win team to sneak in, but that’s not how things are shaping up.

If it’s not already clear, all of this coming together for the Raiders is unlikely. The fact that they still have a chance after what they’ve been through this season, however, is impressive. The Raiders pulling it off with Pierce at the helm could put an end to the constant change the franchise has endured, but no one is looking that far ahead just yet.

“I don’t think we’re about making a run,” Pierce said Monday. “What we’ve been doing is page by page, step by step, not cheating the process. We can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. Obviously, the belief is getting there. We’re believing in one another, trusting one another, being accountable to one another, playing for one another and being together.

“We’ll count the wins at the end of the season, but right now we’re still trying to build that foundation.”

Brick by brick ⚒️#NYJvsLV | #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/KpgHCfj8pu

— Las Vegas Raiders (@Raiders) November 13, 2023

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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